BERLIN (Reuters) – The German economy is likely to shrink by 6.6% this year as a consequence of the coronavirus crisis before growing by 10.2% in 2021, the Ifo Institute said on Thursday in its latest update.

On average, businesses expected their operations would return to normal after severe second-quarter lockdowns in nine months, Ifo said: under this scenario, the economy would shrink 12.4% in the second quarter of this year.

Under a worst-case scenario in which a return to normal took 16 months, the economy would shrink 9.3% this year and grow 9.5% the next. The most benign scenario had companies recovering in five months, with the economy shrinking by just 3.9% and growing 7.4% next year.