BERLIN (Reuters) – If Britain quits the European Union without a deal, that could shave at least 0.5 percent off Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP), the head of Germany’s BDI industry association said on Tuesday.

BDI Managing Director Joachim Lang said that would equate to around 17 billion euros ($19.30 billion or £14.7 billion) being slashed off GDP this year alone. He said Britain would probably fall into recession if there were a hard Brexit.

“Contingency measures taken by companies and politicians could water down the worst effects but we would still really feel the impact of a hard Brexit,” Lang said, according to the text of a speech he was giving in Berlin.